Global electronic locks market: from technological innovation to blue ocean breakout, who can seize the next decade?

First, the Chinese market: the rise of the C-end and industry reshuffle in parallel

In 2024, China's smart door lock market experienced a deep adjustment. Data show that the annual omni-channel sales of 17.47 million sets, a slight decline of 3%, but the industry pattern has undergone a fundamental transformation: C-end market share for the first time exceeded 50%, reaching 54.6%, and the online channel contributed to the sales of 7.72 million sets, becoming the main engine of growth. Behind this is the continued cooling of the B-side of the real estate market - the national sales of newly-built commercial properties fell by 22.7%, forcing companies to turn their attention to individual consumers.

Price wars have become the keyword for C-suite competition. The average price of online channels fell to RMB 913 from RMB 1,301 in 2021, and Internet brands such as Xiaomi and Huawei are sinking fast with their traffic advantages. But the price war did not completely devour the market, Deschmann, Cadiz and other brands through the layout of the high-end market of more than 1,500 yuan, successfully achieve a balance between revenue and profit. Data show that the sales of 1500-1999 yuan price segment increased by 31.7% year-on-year in 2024, confirming the coexistence of consumer upgrading and cost-effective demand.

Second, the technology race: from a single function to the security centre

The electronic lock industry is undergoing a metamorphosis from ‘door lock’ to ‘home security centre’. Biometrics has become the core battlefield: 3D structured light face recognition penetration rate soared from 11.5% in 2023 to 38.2%, and finger vein recognition exceeded 13%. Huawei's Hi3861 chip integrates an AI engine, and the success rate of wet hand fingerprint recognition reaches 95%; DSM even applies GPT-4 technology to fingerprint algorithms, solving the pain points of fingerprint abrasion and molting, and realising ‘the more it is used, the more sensitive it is’.

The breakthrough of chip technology provides the underlying support for product upgrading. The Ankai Micropore Ming II chip adopts a dual-core architecture and supports multi-modal biometric fusion; BYD BF5885AM64 integrates the main control and touch module, shortening the development cycle by 40%. These innovations not only improve security, but also promote the expansion of electronic locks to smart cat-eye, millimetre wave radar monitoring, whole-house linkage and other functions, becoming the entry-level device of the smart home ecosystem.

Third, the global opportunity: overseas market into a new engine of growth

Compared with the domestic penetration rate of 27.9%, the penetration rate of less than 3% of the overseas market is called ‘blue ocean’. Mainstream products in Europe and the United States are still dominated by passwords and fingerprints, with functional iteration lagging 1-2 generations behind the domestic market. Chinese brands with technological advantages to open the ‘downward strike’: Deschmann in North America to launch intelligent rental solutions, Cadiz layout of Southeast Asia engineering market, millet ecological chain enterprises through cost-effective products to quickly occupy the market.

According to forecasts, the global electronic lock market size will exceed $26.2 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 15%. But going overseas is not a straight road: different regional certification standards (such as the EU EN1303, the U.S. ANSI), localised service capabilities and channel construction, will become a key factor in testing enterprises.

Fourth, the future trend: ecological integration and ageing innovation

1. Smart home ecological closed loop: electronic locks are changing from independent devices to intelligent hubs. Huawei, millet through the brand ecosystem to achieve device interconnection, Oribe and other companies have launched a whole-house intelligent custom solutions to solve the problem of multi-brand device compatibility.

2. Aging and special scenarios: voice interaction and emergency alarm functions for elderly users, as well as customised solutions for special scenarios such as cold chain logistics and industrial equipment, have become new growth points.

3. Accelerated localisation of supply chain: the localisation rate of mainstream door lock chips has reached 62% in 2024, and may break through 80% in the next three years, the maturity of the domestic supply chain will further reduce costs and enhance the autonomy of technology.

Conclusion

Electronic lock industry is standing in the ‘technology upgrading’ and ‘globalisation’ of the dual-wheel drive wind mouth. With the accumulation of technology and brand effect, the head enterprise takes the initiative in the price war and technology war; while small and medium-sized brands will face the risk of being eliminated if they can't quickly achieve product differentiation and channel breakthrough. With the deepening application of AI and IoT technologies, as well as the continuous development of overseas markets, the electronic lock industry is expected to usher in a broader development space in the next decade.